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Deconstructing Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani’s Gallup Pakistan

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It is not uncommon to read results of various opinion surveys and polls on political issues and choices in Pakistani (and international) media. What however remains usually hidden is the real motive behind such polls and results. More often than not, instead of representing genuine public opinion, such surveys are designed and their results manipulated in order to mislead and influence the public opinion to serve certain vested interests.

Gallup Pakistan, led by a Jamaat-e-Islami and Nawaz Sharif loyalist, Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani, is one such example, notorious for its right wing and ISI centred polls. A few months ago, I wrote in January 2010:

If one is to believe in the Poll and Survey mafia, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan are two of the most popular leaders in Pakistan whereas PPP and its allies such as ANP, JUI-F have their popularity graph on the decline.

However, it seems that the people of Pakistan do not reflect the ’sentiments’ and ‘wishes’ of the poll engineers. After the PPP’s victory in the Gilgit-Baltistan and Quetta elections, JUI-F has won bye elections in Mansehra and ANP (supported by PPP) has won in Swat.

Shame on Ijaz Gilani (Jamaatia) of Gallup Pakistan, and his propagandists including but not limited to Haroon-ur-Rasheed, Ansar Abbasi, Dr Shahid Masood and Irfan Siddiqui.

Source: https://lubpak.net/archives/3514#comment-1717

After my brief conversation today with a fellow administrator of the LUBP, I cannot resist posting a quick article exposing the reality of Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani and his cleverly disguised right wing project known as Gallup Pakistan.

Let us start with a brief, crisp piece by Tahir Sarwar Mir on graphiay (survey manipulators) such as Ijza Shafi Gilani:

If you would like to read the opinion of other authors such as Atalul Haq Qasmi, Munno Bhai and Abbas Athar, you may find their articles at the following links:

https://lubpak.net/archives/1471

https://lubpak.net/archives/609

Who is Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani?

In a nutshell, Dr Gilani is a life long affiliate of Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan. He has also served as an employee and loyalist to Nawaz Sharif in his IJI/ISI engineered government during 1991-1993.

According to ICG Asia Report No 49 entitled “Pakistan: The Mullahs and The Military” (20 March 2003)

Intellectuals and writers are among the JI’s most valuable assets. It was the first religious party toinclude Western-educated academics, a policy that dates to the Jamaat-military alliance during the Cold War. Pro-Jamaat intellectuals, many educated in the U.S., dominate social science research. Intellectuals with past or active affiliations with the JI run research organisations such as the Institute of Policy Studies (Islamabad) and Gallup Pakistan. The secretary general of the Jamaat, Prof. Khurshid Ahmed, an eminent economist, heads the Institute of Policy Studies. The head of Gallup Pakistan, Dr. Ejaz Shafi Gillani,too, was originally affiliated with the IJT. (pp.10-11)

Here is an excerpt from Dr Gilani’s official profile at Pakistan Herald:

Educational Background
Dr. Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 1977

Professional Experience
2003 – Present: Honorary Senior Fellow, the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad and Honorary Dean of the Faculty of Management and Social Sciences, IIU Islamabad
1980 – Present: Chairman, Gallup Pakistan
1991 – 1993: Advisor to the Prime Minister and Chairman of the Prime Minister”s Committee for Research and Analysis

Guess who was this man serving in 1991-1993? (Ameer-ul-momineen Nawaz Sharif, courtesy IJI, ISI and Osama bin Laden)

Guess who was this man serving from 2003 to 2007: (General Pervez Musharraf)

This man spends most of his time in crafting and engineering right wing oriented survey polls and also attending and lecturing in Jamaat-e-Islami and IJT’s training workshops in Mansoora, Lahore.

xrepo

How professional and reliable is Gallup Pakistan?

Here is an excellent piece by Wasiq Ali on the hidden agenda and the lack of transparency and professionalism in Gallup Pakistan.

… in the West polling organisations openly acknowledge any political affiliation or sponsorship. We hear of Democratic Party pollster Mark Penn and Republican pollster Frank Luntz. The affiliation does not mean the polling data is inaccurate but it warns analysts against any possible tilt in the manner of framing of questions.

Pakistan’s oldest polling organization, Gallup Pakistan, was founded by Dr Ijaz Gilani, a competent man, whose polling reports do not frankly acknowledge his association with the Jamaat-e-Islami. The very fact that the primary field force for Gallup’s polling is recruited from Jamaat-e-Islami’s cadres could affect the outcome of the poll in the view of some. This is not in any way meant to cast aspersion on Gallup’s polling in Pakistan, just to suggest the need for full disclosure. Polls can only be accurate where the framing of the questions has been less than subjective and the public has a right to know the subjectivities of those conducting any poll.

A common mistake in Pakistani polls, which makes them less accurate, relates to provincial and urban-rural weight. For example, the latest Pew Poll acknowledges that its sample of 1,254 adults was “disproportionately urban.” The Pew Poll sample was 55% urban even though Pakistan is only 33% urban. The reason for the disproportionately urban sampling was stated to be the “greater heterogeneity of the urban population.”

In its methodology section, the Pew poll states, “In addition to sampling error one should bear in mind that questions wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce errors or bias into the findings of opinion polls.”

The Gallup-Al Jazeera poll also had given Punjab 60% in the polling sample whereas Punjab only accounts for 52% of Pakistan’s population.

Such anomalies fail to recognize the fundamental realities of Pakistan. First, Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Muslim League-N are primarily based in urban Punjab. Any poll giving more weight to urban Punjab would unduly favour Nawaz Sharif and his party. Secondly, urban Pakistan is more affected by the themes in the media. Since the Pakistani media has been intrinsically hostile to President Zardari that hostility is reflected in urban opinions.

Thirdly, polling is difficult in areas such as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). For example, the limited polling done in FATA affirms that people there support drone attacks because they get rid of people who are making their lives miserable.

But in the rest of the country, especially the urban areas, there is greater hostility to drone attacks largely because of the media drumming up anti-Americanism.

A detailed study of the Pew Poll methodology also indicates that there is no accounting for proportions of well-to-do versus poor and Muslims versus non-Muslim minorities. All these factors mean that just as the Gallup and other polls before the February 2008 elections failed to take into account rural and minority opinions they are doing the same even now.

Most polls before the 2008 elections predicted fewer seats for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and a lot more for the two Pakistan Muslim League factions. But we all know that the election result was different. So if President Zardari is still smiling after unfavorable opinion poll results he probably has good reason. Public opinion can change and if Pakistan can stay on the democratic course, which it should, then much can happen to alter public opinion between now and the next election due in February 2013. It is election results and not opinion polls that matter, however much hysterical anchors and columnists might drum up the opinion poll surveys. Source: The News

Here is another perspective on Dr Ijaz Gilani and his Gallup Pakistan by Farhan Malick:

Not many Pakistanis know that Gallup Pakistan has nothing to do with the US-based Gallup, Inc. that frequently makes international headlines with its presidential approval ratings and US economic data. Apparently, even an organization of the size and repute of Al Jazeera is unaware of this fact. Instead, Gallup Pakistan is associated with the UK-based Gallup International Association, which works primarily through its website and is notorious in the market research industry for handing out affiliations all over the world for as low as a few hundred dollars.

“Over the years, most of the work done by Gallup Pakistan has been for government departments and non-governmental organizations based both here and abroad. Incidentally, both of [these organizations] do not set very high standards of accountability,” said one industry source. This coupled with Gallup Pakistan’s inability to gain the private sector’s trust raises a few questions about the organization’s credibility.

It was in 2006 that Gallup Pakistan was denied registration of the “Gallup” trademark in Pakistan after the trademark registrar received objections from Gallup, Inc. Less than a year ago a US court ruled in favor of the Gallup, Inc. after the company complained of trademark infringement when Gallup Pakistan’s Dr. Gilani took part in a US radio show and used the name Gallup Pakistan to describe the company.
“There has always been a big question mark over the formulation of the questions being asked in these surveys, and historically these survey companies have also been guilty of misreporting their sampling errors and margins of error,” says Dr. Farrukh Saleem of the Centre of Research and Security Studies, an Islamabad think tank. “Just a few months back a local TV channel ran a public survey asking people [if] they want Islam in Pakistan. Now for me that is an extremely inappropriate question, of course 98% of the respondents will say yes. But if we were to ask if they want the Deobandi, Barelvi or some other version of Islam, that would have got us much more interesting results.”

Source

In the light of the above, it is safe to conclude that any opinion polls conduced and their results processed by Gallup Pakistan will consistently reflect pro-Nawaz Sharif and pro-right wing tendencies, and are therefore not worth the piece of paper they are usually printed on.

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Abdul Nishapuri

12 Comments

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  • The questions designed by such bigots will not be any means different from his forefather and inspiration, none other than hell makani, Zia referendum ballet paper question…
    1. Pakistan K Masail K hal k liye ap kise behtar samajte hein
    A. Nawaz Sharif
    B. Mian Nawaz Sharif
    C. Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif
    D. Amirul Momineen Mian Nawaz Sharif

  • Dr Ijza Shafi (Jamatia) Gilani is an international thief:

    Incontestable – March 2010 Issue

    Civil Cases

    Gallup, Inc. v. Bus. Research Bureau (Pvt.) Ltd.,
    2010 WL 545857 (N.D. Cal. Feb. 11, 2010)
    by Naresh Kilaru

    ABSTRACT
    Following the republication of public opinion polls of the Pakistani national election by independent U.S. news organizations, which had been published by Pakistani polling company Gallup Pakistan on its website at http://www.gallup.com.pk, U.S.-based Gallup filed a trademark-infringement action against Gallup Pakistan. Finding that the Pakistani defendant had no business presence in the United States, did not sell or advertise any services in the United States, and that its activities were wholly extraterritorial, the district court denied plaintiff’s summary judgment motion for lack of subject matter jurisdiction. The district court also emphasized that granting the relief requested by the plaintiff raised issues of comity as the parties were involved in a contemporaneous trademark dispute in Pakistan over the same mark.

    CASE SUMMARY

    FACTS

    Plaintiff Gallup, Inc. (“Gallup”), the well-known U.S.-based market research and public opinion polling company, has used the GALLUP mark for its public opinion polling services for more than 70 years and owns numerous U.S. registrations therefor. The defendants (“Gallup Pakistan”) run a public opinion polling service that has operated in Pakistan under the trade name GALLUP PAKISTAN for more than 30 years. Gallup Pakistan operates an English-language website at the URL http://www.gallup.com.pk, which is accessible in the United States and prominently displays the GALLUP PAKISTAN mark.

    Gallup Pakistan is a member of the Zurich-based Gallup International Association (“GIA”), an international polling organization with more than 60 member agencies around the world. While GIA and the plaintiff were both founded by the same individual (Dr. George Gallup), the two organizations are otherwise unrelated and are involved in ongoing trademark disputes around the world.

    In early 2008, following Gallup Pakistan’s publication on its website of the results of six Pakistani public opinions polls regarding the Pakistan national election, thirteen major news organizations, including the New York Times, Reuters, and Time, republished the Pakistani polling results in the United States. Two of the articles inaccurately attributed the poll results to “Gallup.”

    Gallup filed suit in the United States for trademark infringement alleging a violation of its trademark rights based upon: (1) Gallup Pakistan’s use of the GALLUP mark on its English-language website; and (2) Gallup Pakistan’s use of the GALLUP mark in connection with its polling and survey results as published in the United States. Gallup sought to enjoin Gallup Pakistan’s use of the GALLUP mark in the United States and its operation of an English-language website at http://www.gallup.com.pk .

    Gallup Pakistan filed an answer and a motion to dismiss for lack of subject matter jurisdiction. The court initially denied the motion to dismiss, finding that the complaint alleged sufficient acts within the United States to warrant the exercise of subject matter jurisdiction. However, after Gallup filed a motion for summary judgment on its trademark-infringement claims, the court revisited the issue of subject matter jurisdiction in light of the factual evidence presented by both parties.

    ANALYSIS

    Courts in the Ninth Circuit must consider three factors in determining whether to extend the Lanham Act’s jurisdictional reach over extraterritorial activities: (1) whether the extraterritorial activities have “some effect” on American foreign commerce; (2) whether the effect is sufficiently great to present a cognizable injury to the plaintiff under the statute; and (3) whether the interests of and links to American foreign commerce are sufficiently strong in relation to those of other nations to justify an assertion of extraterritorial authority.

    In denying Gallup’s motion for summary judgment and ordering Gallup to show cause why the case should not be dismissed for lack of subject matter jurisdiction, the court concluded that the application of this test raised “troubling concerns.” In relation to the first factor, while concluding that Gallup Pakistan’s activities had “some effect” on Gallup’s U.S. trademark rights following republication of defendant’s survey results in U.S. publications, the court found the effect to have been “nominal” since only six of presumably thousands of Gallup Pakistan surveys had ever been republished by American news outlets. Relative to the second factor, the court questioned whether the nominal nature of the injury could justify the “severe” equitable relief sought in Gallup’s motion. Finally, the court found a substantial risk of conflict with foreign law, as the parties were involved in a contemporaneous infringement dispute in Pakistan over their rights to the GALLUP mark in that country. If Gallup prevailed in the Pakistani action, the relief sought in the U.S. case would be unnecessary as Gallup could rely on Pakistan’s own trademark laws to enjoin Gallup Pakistan’s use of the GALLUP mark. Alternatively, if Gallup Pakistan prevailed, the U.S. court’s grant of equitable relief would significantly interfere with Gallup Pakistan’s right to lawfully use its mark in Pakistan. The court found the possibility of such interference particularly troubling given Gallup Pakistan’s long-standing status as a GIA member and, presumably, long-standing authorization from GIA to use the GALLUP PAKISTAN mark in Pakistan. Finally, even assuming the court were inclined to grant the equitable relief requested, it was unclear how such relief could be enforced given that both Gallup Pakistan and its website resided in Pakistan.

    The court denied the summary judgment motion and ordered Gallup to show cause why the action should not be dismissed for lack of subject matter jurisdiction. Subsequent court records indicate that the parties have briefed the issue and the action is ongoing, with Gallup taking limited discovery on the scope of Gallup Pakistan’s U.S. activities.

    CONCLUSION

    While U.S. courts have routinely exercised subject matter jurisdiction over trademark-infringement claims involving foreign websites, this decision suggests that where a foreign defendant’s activities have limited impact on U.S. commerce and where the parties are already entangled in a trademark dispute abroad, a U.S. court may decline to extend the Lanham Act’s jurisdictional reach over extraterritorial activities.

    http://www.finnegan.com/files/upload/Incontestable_Mar10_2.html

  • Consistent with the desires of his masters in the anti-democracy establishment, Gallup Pakistan (Jamatia Sharifia Gilani) is hell bent to highlight the supremacy of judge (bureaucrat) Iftikhar Chaudhry over the elected parliament.

    Here is the latest poll by Gallup Pakistan released on 2 April 2010:

    Majority supports SC’s role: Gallup

    Friday, April 02, 2010
    By By Usman Manzoor
    ISLAMABAD: An overwhelming majority supports the performance of the Supreme Court (SC) and believes that it is working within the parameters of the Constitution.

    A survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan says that more than half of all Pakistanis, 57 per cent, are of the opinion that the SC is working within its given limits, while 18 per cent believe that it is crossing the given mandate.

    The remaining one-fourth were either unsure or didn’t respond. The survey has been conducted at a time when the Supreme Court has given a landmark decision on the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) and is pressing the government to write a letter to the Swiss government for reopening of money laundering cases against President Asif Ali Zardari and others.

    The survey, released on March 22 under the head ‘Views on Judicial Activism’, depicts the popularity of independent judiciary. Some 18 per cent Pakistanis have voted that the apex court was acting beyond its mandate.

    It is believed that many do not know the actual mandate of the SC given in the Constitution. The survey of Gilani Research Foundation carried out by Gallup Pakistan says a nationally representative sample of men and women from across the country were asked: “Some people believe that Supreme Court is acting beyond its mandate and it should not do so. In your opinion is the Supreme Court acting within its authority or beyond it?”

    Fifty seven per cent answered that the Supreme Court was acting within its authority. The remaining 25% were either unsure or gave no response. The findings reveal no significant difference in opinion of people from across various demographics.

    The survey was carried out among a sample of 2,755 men and women in rural and urban areas all over the country. A segment of intellectuals and lawyers, in the recent past, had started issuing statements against the SC after the NRO when the apex court, while testing NRO, declared that it was against Article 62-f of the Constitution, a provision which was introduced by Ziaul Haq and was never touched by five Senates and as many National Assemblies.

    Similarly, the government came at loggerheads with the SC while elevating Justice Saqib Nisar to the Supreme Court and so-called constitutional experts of the government had started giving lame excuses in support of President Zardari, which bounced when the government had to accept the recommendations of chief justice of Pakistan after a meeting of prime minister and CJP.

    http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=232221

  • I think this article is written with extreme bias and little reasoning. Gallup poll is biased but a simple person who remembers his BBA management will tell you how.

    For example, the Gallup Pakistan’s last survey around a year back showed that Zardaris rating increased by 15 percentage point whilst Sharif’s decreased. The apparent reversal in trends caused Gallup to drop the question altogether. I’m certain today Zardari’s rating have gone up but the Gallup is not interested in asking the people again.

    Similarly, they have stopped conducting polls with respect to judiciary, popular leaders and most of all the media since the results of the last polls conducted showed PPP gaining popularity as opposed to media and judiciary whose credibility is falling.

  • پنجاب اسمبلی کا میڈیا پر خودکش حملہ….گریبان ۔۔۔۔منوبھائی

    پنجاب اسمبلی نے ایک قرار داد مذمت کے ذریعے ’’میڈیا‘‘پر خودکش حملہ کیا ہے، خودکش حملوں میں سب سے پہلے حملہ آور ہی مارے جاتے ہیں اور اس خود کش حملے میں بھی یہی ہوا ہے۔

    اس قرار داد مذمت یا خود کش حملے نے اب تک حکمرانوں کو جو نقصان پہنچایا ہے وہ طالبان پاکستان سے پنجاب کے صوبے کو بخش دینے کی درخواست اور سید علی ہجویریؒ کے دربار پر حملے سے بھی زیادہ نقصان زدہ ثابت ہوا ہے۔ یہاں تک کہ ٹرانس پرینسی انٹرنیشنل کی تازہ رپورٹ سے جو سیاسی فائدے اخذ کئے گئے تھے ان پر بھی پانی پھیر دیا گیا ہے۔پنجاب کے سابق وزیر اعلیٰ چودھری پرویز الٰہی کاکہنا ہے کہ اس رپورٹ کی صداقت سراسر مشکوک ہے کیونکہ ٹرانس پرینسی انٹرنیشنل کے پاکستانی شعبہ کے سربراہ مسٹر عادل گیلانی خود مسلم لیگ نون کی ٹاسک فورس، کے رکن ہیں، چنانچہ مذکورہ بالا رپورٹ میں بتایا گیا ہے کہ صوبہ پنجاب کے عوام کی اکثریت بلکہ 52فیصد سے بھی زیادہ نے’’خادم اعلیٰ‘‘کی حکومت کو پسند فرمایا ہے جبکہ47فیصد چودھری برادران کے حق میں تھے۔

    http://search.jang.com.pk/details.asp?nid=449607

  • Dr Gillani is one of rare intellectuals of great potential. we should respect his genology. If you dont accept the objectivity of his works you should better raise another objective-sound ‘poll’.
    what i would like to appeal is please try to learn how to behave in a society. Thank You!

  • If affiliation with IJT in student days is a crime, then Zardari should fire his Ambassador to USA, Hussain Haqqani. He was the Chief of IJT during his days in Karachi University.

  • After reading the material available on this page I could form an opinion that you are not independent or logical analyst .It seems you have personal grudge , enmity or motives against Gallup and Dr.Ijaz Shafi Gilani.
    Dr.Ijaz Shafi Gilani was never an associate of Jamaat e Islami or Nawaz sharif .Through out his academic carrier he was an outstanding student and position holder. He contested Presidential Election of Karachi University Student Union as Islami Jamiat Tulba candidate same as Hussain Haqqani who is govt folds and making head lines in National and International media.

    No survey or surveying agency can claim 100% accuracy and the same is with Gallup Pakistan and if you go through the results of their various surveys , you will realize the most were proven very close to the reality.

    As far the popularity of Imran Khan or Nawaz sharif concerns , that sin of confirming thae Gallup Pakistan’sresult is being committed by all world class surveys in different countries specially of United States and British.

  • Just came across this page. I have not seen anything of greater professional dishonesty than this article. The person is either misleading the public or doesn’t know the ABC of sampling and surveys.

    Just one small example. You have mentioned the over-weighted representation of urban population. Just for your knowledge when a certain strata of population is over-represented in a sample due to any reason then, at the time of compilation of results their answers are like-wise multiplied by lower weights so that the sampling bias gets removed. This is a perfectly acceptable basic technique that survey organizations deploys around the world.

    So please ether try to improve your basic knowledge or stop misleading the public.

    Dr. Gilani is well respected thorough professional. You are simply jealous or have a hidden agenda.