There is a real civil unrest on the horizon. We can verify the timings, immediately after the passing of 18th amendment. When the celebrations were about to take the second turn, instead we saw rallies and protests on power crisis first and soon after we saw a sudden popping up of a civil unrest on the ‘disputed’ name of previously NWFP, leading to 7 dead and many injured with riots, burning properties and havoc.
Power crisis is another very serious issue; there seems to be no immediate solution. This fact is very much known to the general public at large due to media, but WHO is causing a large public to come out protesting specially in Punjab and chanting slogan against the current government? Already bewailing general public and business sector anguish needs a small flare to ignite a huge fire and the strategy is successful. PML-N knows it very well that even if they are placed in the government footings, they themselves will not be able to provide immediate solutions as the magnitude of crisis is beyond immediate control.
A serious dispute erupted in Abbotabad against the new name of NWFP. It is strange that we didn’t heard of any one when the name was finalized and the media talked about it for 3 consecutive days. We saw the 11th hour mysterious back tracking by PMLN on name issue. Then we saw no body objected the new name and after exact 5~6 days, when the bill is in assembly, we heard the cry of anguish. WHO triggered the unrest? Now the situation is getting serious as many people have been killed, properties damaged and people injured. A simple wish of changing the name turned out to be a bloody revolution asking a split into a new province for the people of Hazara.
The story does not end here, we have heard that Bahawalpur and Seraiki area political leadership has demanded a separate provincial status for their respective regions. Sooner or later, we may hear voices from Balochistan as well, to split the largest province into two to three smaller provinces, one for Pakhtoon, one for balochs and one for Makranis, etc. Why not, when the winds are favorable for divisions.
The reasons behind all above and below could be as it is about time, the current government has successfully pulled on 2 years after facing severe turmoil and yet survived. As experienced in last two decades, this is the maximum democratic period a democratic government is allowed to serve as per whims and wishes of some serious ‘inter-country chess players’ and some external experts as well.
What could be the after effects of all above. let us follow the trail on imaginary presumption;
1- All the above is the part of bigger game to spread a civil unrest in the country to derail, not democracy but current government.
2- Such a civil unrest may lead to bigger turmoil which apparently government will fail to control and lay down it’s hands
3- Civil disobedience at larger scale could arise if PPP resists serious threats in all provinces or further, non implementation on NRO order
4- Soon, we may hear a full scale judicial pressure, again, on current government for swiss cases (which is mysteriously silent, again, for some time after the latest blow)
5- When the fire spreads, the paved road will lead the non democratic forces to interfere, like they did on restoration of judges and at many instances.
6- Other democratic political parties (who will secretly form an alliance) will immediately demand for mid term elections
Who could be the main inland and potential architects or rented players for all above;
1- PML(N) & Q (they could play as a tag team or could play individual bouts with current government), along with Tehrik e Insaf.
2- Local and ethnic parties of Sindh Province (As this new strategy may not allow PPP to play it’s trump card, the in-famous ‘Sindh Card’ alone)
3- Jamat e Islami and under cover banned religious parties
4- Establishment including some elements of Army and ISI
5- MQM will certainly await any future government to form an alliance with them to continue the rule
Judiciary may not become part and parcel in all above, as their pressure on government due to NRO will be suffice to kneel the government operatives down. Government will not be able to resist or delay due to dire and strait situation all around as they may not be able to afford, to allow PMLN and others, to come out on road and protest. Sensible PPP high ups may not afford any more unrest by resisting or delaying the court’s order implementation (like they did before, in Punjab and some parts of Sindh and burned effigies. Sensibility does not allow big mouths to invite overt confrontations in media as few PPP ministers and jiyalays did, like Zulfiqar Mirza, Salman Taseer, etc. This will make things worse.)
Media hype is likely to happen and ‘Meray Mutabiq’ may appear in original color (it is in black right now, as a protest against forced closing by government, few months back). Dr. Shahid Masood will have plenty to talk about and his guest’s list will increase, even he could ask extra time or special episodes to provide running commentary on the events after events, specially and particularly on NRO.
PPP must steadfastly settle the burning issues with speed, honesty and dexterity, other wise above killer issues will fatten up further and will engulf what we usually call democracy, after every two to three years, sandwiched before or after a dictatorial rule.
An advice, play patiently, play safe.