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Najam Shady ringing alarm bells – Dilshad Chandio

 

Shady Pontificating on GEO

 On wednesday night ( September 21st, 2011) in his show, Najam Sethi alluded to a joint ghairat brigade assault on the PPP govt given deteriorating relations with America on the Haqqani network issue. His analysis went thus: the US exasperated by the lack of will to take on the Haqqani network by the Pakistanis will do an intensive strike – drone or otherwise – in North Waziristan.

According to Sethi (known as shady by those who have known him a long time!) this will create a massive uproar by the media, most political parties and even the judiciary. There may be an incident (according to NS), say, in a massive demo outside the US embassy, which will trigger massive unrest. The fallguy in all this will be the PPP govt and Zardari in particular. Sethi also stated that the entire process will be controlled/manipulated by the army. He also stated that ANP will go along with N League once the chorus starts and join the right wing coalition. Also MQM will make a familiar volte face and join the side that appears more powerful.

There are obviously a number of issues this ‘analysis’ or rather fed information to Mr. Shady raises. First, Shady says that he is 100% sure the US will attack with much greater force than in the past. He kept on repeating that if drone strikes may kill 200 in a day. While this maybe informed conjecture but by no means is  a foregone conclusion. The US has many other military as well economic-diplomatic tools to arm twist the Pakistani deep state.

Second, even if we assume Shady is correct, why should the civilian govt become the fall guy for the exclusive mendacity of the deep state? This is not a moral issue but Shady conveniently jumps to the strange conclusion based on dubious assumptions. He assumes that the US knowingly will do something that will lead to the demise of its own civilian support base in Pakstan and push Pakistan completely in the embrace of the rightists.

He also says that after the right wing coalition takes over, relations with the US will normalize to the extent that the two important groups dependent  on America – the army and big business – will go back to business as usual viz. Pak-US relations. This is, to say the least a heroic assumption. You remove the largest civilian group from power based on anti-US sentiment on the street and the US will work happily ever after with the right wing coalition!

Third, he also states that the ANP will join the right wingers on the coat tails of N league. While there may be some sympathisers of N league amongst the ANP leadership, this will be suicidal for the party. It will effectively amount to joining the ranks of the Taliban and give up its identity of a secular pashtun nationalist outfit. One can expect such political blunders on the part of MQM but not from ANP.

Fourth, Shady also did not factor in the politics that Zardari will play if such a situation occurs. He will obviously not tamely surrender; that is not how he has done politics in this round. And what about the poitical fallout in Sindh and Balochistan where there is little sympathy for such right wing sentiments?

This is not to say that a dip in Pak-US relations, thanks to the incorrigible bad boy antics of the deep state, will create serious problems in the near future. But for Shady to twist this to claim that the  civilian govt will be the biggest loser seems like a plant from some desperate fantasizer in Aabpara. Having followed Shady’s writings for more than a decade, I can safely say all the points raised here would have been considered by him if he was not pushing the Aabpara agenda in this instance.

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Jehangir Hafsi

13 Comments

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  • Come on Dilshad. His analysis is apt and accurate. Your comments seem to be a desperate attempt at burying the head in the sand. Look what your Foreign minister is saying then talk. ANd btw isn’t it the usual pattern now that the Army pushes for a fight with US when their chief is not in presidencyand goes all honkey dorey with US when the themselves are in power. Which part of this game is not obvious to you. But the biggest shame is that PPP is turning out to be biggest panderers of the GHQ in the whole history of Pakistan. Shut Hina’s mouth and then talk.

  • Babar: Given you own logic, whatever the foreign or interior ministers are saying and that the PPP is not taking on the GHQ, why should they be made fall guys and on what pretext?

    Also, patterns of the past may not be repeated now, especially if the entire clamour for the coup is to distance yourself from the US.

    Shady is openly calling for the army in his editorial in TFT today.

    http://www.thefridaytimes.com/beta2/tft/article.php?issue=20110923&page=1

  • To be honest PPP would love to be the fall guy now. That would leave it some room to make a come back later. Najm Sethi may be twisting and turning and belaboring the point but he is making it loud and clear. Don’t pay attention to the theories pay attention to the message.I see that all the big guns are out on TV. Kamran khan even brought out Maliha Lodhi the ISI spokeswomen in chief out along with the former numero uno nutcase Gen. Musharaf. Is it written in stone now, can’t say but it is pretty close.

    If you watch the creep shows where the army officers appear all the time, you watch them taking a line which basically states that there are folks inside Pakistan that are supporting the “outside” forces against the Pak interests…reference is much to clear to miss. In fact this article falls right in to the trap.

  • یہ ہاؤ بلاو جنگلی جانور جلال الدین حقانی افغانی ہے یا پاکستان ؟ اگر یہ افغانی ہے تو اپنے ملک میں کیوں نہیں رہتا ؟ یہ پاکستان میں کس ویزا پر ہے ؟ کیا پاکستان کی آرمی ایک غیر ملکی جو اپنا دہشتگرد نیٹوورک چلارہا ہو اس کے خلاف کروائی نہیں کر سکتی ؟

    عجیب بات ہے کہ پاکستان امریکا سے کہ رہا ہی کہ ہم تمھارے ساتھ ہیں دوسری طرف حقانی افغانی کو پاکستان میں پال رہا ہو اور حقانی وہاں سے بیٹھا جہاد کر رہا ہو
    اور پھر ہم کہیں کے پاکستان کی زیرزمین افغانستان میں دہشتگردی کے لئے استمعال نہیں ہو رہی
    جھوٹ اور منافقت کب تک ؟
    اگر ان جہادی جنگلی جانوروں کو پالنا ہے تو پھر امریکا سے پیسے کیوں لے رہے ہو ؟ گلی گلی میں شریعت نافذ کرو ،گلے کاٹو اور ان جنگلی جہادیوں کو اپنے اوپر مسلط کرو جو سری دنیا سے جہاد کے نام پر پنگے لائے اور خود چھپ جائینگے اور عوام مرے گی

  • Analyzing the ground reality, I guess, Mr. Najam Sethi has anticipated about a logical scenario.
    1. Majority of Pakistanis, due to lack of political education, have turned as Anti-Americans.
    2. Religious Fanaticism is at rise, in all social sectors of Pakistan.
    3. The existing Federal and Provincial Governments, have failed to control terrorism and militancy.
    4. Militant Religious parties are gaining popularity and acting freely according to their agenda.
    5. Most of prominent political leaders, might be under threat or out of fear, have, soft corner for Taliban and their supporters.
    6. Their is no doubt about the presence of Pro-Taliban and Pro-Zia sections at the GHQ.
    7. Civil and Military Administration, has acknowledged their incompetency and incapability to create any positive breakthrough at the rusted social, economic, political, cultural and moral fabric of Pakistan, in the near future.
    8. Overall, Pakistan, due to limited money generating resources and rapidly growing population, is getting ungovernable.
    Under such conditions, America should not let the nuclear arsenal, what can further relayed to Religious Fanatics, lying under the control of a failed state and a disorganized mob

  • Najam Sethi is a different kind of analyser other than many Don Quixotes like analysers loud mouths on TV channels. He has perhaps taken a sharp notice of Gen. Kayani’s sudden visit to Karachi where he addressed and exchanged views with big city businessmen. This is the first time Sethi has bid adieu to his caucious self assessments. Perhaps his provincialism has taken him over.

    There is a remote possibility to choose Nawaz Sharif as successor of Zardari on my following reasonings:

    1. Army is not that fool that every time a new puppet government manipulated by the Army would be acceptable to USA after some one or two years mutterings. Things are quite different and very sensitive now. Army can forget NS lashing out on Army and threatening judicial inquiry on Osama Bin Laden, but USA can not.

    2. For us it is may-be or may-be-not, but USA strongly believes that NS had had two rendezvous with Osama Bin Laden and had taken crores for winning elections in 80’s/90’s.

    3. Army is addicted to constant flow of arms and ammunition from USA (specially spare parts for old F16’s) for which they badly need a puppet man who can pursue US Congress such that they do not plug the pipeline. Nawaz Sharif is in no way an able man to do that owing his recent outbursts on USA.

    The third alternative Imran Khan has also recognized himself as anti-USA. However, there are other two parties (Muslim League Hamkhyal and Muslim League of Shaikh Rasheed) that are in the wait to be called any time by GHQ. They are ever ready to play his master voice. May be GHQ has this plan. But any of the two parties can not establish good relations with USA against all odds. At the end of the day, Army would be compelled to think what was wrong with PPP.

  • Unfortunately, Pakistan, as a whole, has lost its Diplomatic credibility.
    The ground reality cannot be overruled that Pakistan is no more considered as a trustworthy state by the International Community, particularly after the Abbottabad incident.
    I feel, Pakistan Administration, has no other choice but to inflate the recent issue of Pak-American Conflict, in order to gain internal harmony.

  • Ohh common yar, everyone has a bitter past, sethi is the only top anchor , swimming against the tide in public sphere. Usually.
    Kindly watch his shows conducted on OBL raid, that show was totally critical of army, at a stage where others were still busy with chauvinism of army,
    Secondly if sethi is on board on some national security media agenda , then sorry to say PPP at the moment is also in the same boat,called, PNS GHQ,

  • Mr. Najam Sethi, comparatively, is one of those few Hosts, who are more rational, informative and educative as compared to other Lal Bujhkars at the Pakistan Media.
    At most of Talk Shows, Anchors play with emotions without bothering about reason and reality.
    Some talk Shows give an impression if one has entered a Barber’s Shop or fish market.