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COVID-19 reality vs fear


The problem with COVID-19 is that it is new to the human population, this creates a rush at the hospital which is why some lock-down makes sense while developing strategies to deal with the potential surge. Such a strategy is outlined in this article


This a deadly virus, but how deadly?

We now have preliminary serological studies for COVID-19 from Europe and America which place the actual death rate at 0.1 to 0.5 percent which is line with the annual Flu.

“These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50 (to) 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases,” the authors wrote.
Researchers from Stanford University shared the results of a large-scale community test, and estimate that between 2.5% and 4.2% of the population of Santa Clara County may have antibodies.


“To me it looks like we don’t yet have a large fraction of the population exposed,” says Nicholas Christakis, a doctor and social science researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive. That means there is a lot more to go even in a hard-hit part of Germany.”


In the same vein Universal testing in a Boston Shelter also show an overwhelming number are asymptomatic:


As much as half of UK is infected or well on its way:


How deadly is it for Pakistan?

Definitely less deadly. Pakistan has pervasive use of BCG Vaccine and Poio drops.


Can an Oral Polio Vaccine Help Stop the Coronavirus?

Plans are underway in the US to do interim vaccination of vulnerable populations (older people or those with co-morbidities) with these vaccines.

Pakistan should do the same. Pakistan already has these programs in place and they should be relaunched with more vigor.

So enhanced immunity through these vaccines coupled with a warmer more humid climate of Pakistan will mean Pakistan will suffer much less than even the Flu and should stop the lock-downs with Surge capacity (see above LUBP article) in place if there is a rush on the hospitals.